GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3792 · narrative · 6H

Will "style" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1068 launches in the last hour referenced "style" (3 distinct creators, rank #96). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.

Made2026-10-14 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.15533629039951166,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40561547988178076
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "style",
    "rank60": 96,
    "share15": 0.007102272727272727,
    "share60": 0.00608044901777362,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1068,
    "momentum": 1.1680506993006992,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 111,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938175,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989695833333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40561547988178076
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.353
Log loss0.902
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006344410876132931,
  "shareRatio": 1.5249450718151971,
  "totalAfter": 9930,
  "shareBefore": 0.004124845318300564,
  "totalBefore": 7273,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "style" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.63% (+54%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "style" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbbe132c122493c9f9fe58eaaae44ee85f3856648c0837e03f96dc164ca47bae6
Previous hash3f2af984c952eb2921413bbddaa77e183dd66bfd86b30db3b2ffdafed612e7fd