Will "confidence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1068 launches in the last hour referenced "confidence" (4 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 0.28986718335711786,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41595371251059304
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "confidence",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.015625,
    "share60": 0.011693171188026192,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1068,
    "momentum": 1.33625,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 111,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938175,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997423958333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41595371251059304
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 10:00 UTC.

Integrity