Ledger / Prediction #3814 · token · 6H

Will $MINION still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "uxento". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 16:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "ENywCPgJdAdKhMhCbzd32NJTmEmtb2vZR12BGL9Wpump",
    "name": "Minion",
    "symbol": "MINION",
    "hotTerms": [
      "uxento"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 29,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3294.4034873739865,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 355,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T10:27:46.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2981.279389033999,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4537.299419989483,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3294.4034873739865,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6588.806974747973
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $MINION would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,981, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $MINION (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc1a0d0fab1e189410956081dde463b407971ee17f51c4d28eac5596d1e6bea37

Previous hash2a68001236c1d94708a463589962d4cd9c4dcaa891664b6f5a2a3eaee4cb5372