Ledger / Prediction #3816 · token · 6H
Will $$SUS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 17m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 10 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
},
"features": {
"mint": "ANvivatJmL9sNayqrsR2GnyePjQbEu4eQ674ULjspump",
"name": "SUSAN",
"symbol": "$SUS",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 17,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 2443.6280412747433,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 10
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 355,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.023
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": null,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T10:14:53.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 422.1079652957257,
"athMarketCapUsd": 4806.780649525131,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 2443.6280412747433,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 2% that $$SUS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $422, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$SUS (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1712fbb11ad7a8311dab4583130d2ae02f38706a9d015bd32afad693c3888e9ePrevious hash
1d5ab93e85eb8d4836d110f324aecbbfe0f963fa14341f95c6976cc58efd5f1e