Ledger / Prediction #3828 · narrative · 24H
Will "eyes" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1318 launches in the last hour referenced "eyes" (4 distinct creators, rank #171). Last 15m momentum 2.30×.
Made2026-10-14 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.832746675391766,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5365281392832537
},
"features": {
"term": "eyes",
"rank60": 171,
"share15": 0.009589041095890411,
"share60": 0.004169825625473844,
"total15": 364,
"total60": 1318,
"momentum": 2.299626400996264,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 157,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963130555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998463773148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5365281392832537
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 11:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
8ead89e15ec9ad98d407e44a7df48b59ffba7c804efa6054c39c0d0f41c7b558Previous hash
d3810162f25e38162274daa94d44e15b0a7e3e7782e47a026383acb283319579