Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (32 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.63×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.4627541085674808,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.325340335097526
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0328125,
    "share60": 0.05212077641984184,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 0.6295474137931034,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935386111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.325340335097526
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06262104583602324,
  "shareRatio": 1.212080088987764,
  "totalAfter": 1549,
  "shareBefore": 0.05157593123209169,
  "totalBefore": 1396,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity