Ledger / Prediction #3835 · narrative · 1H

Will "stockguy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "stockguy" (27 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 4.35×.

Made2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 1.4694571961296707,
      "diversity": -0.14651162790697672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7934273640694376
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stockguy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.1359375,
    "share60": 0.0312724658519051,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 4.346875,
    "diversity": 0.627906976744186,
    "launches15": 43,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935386111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7934273640694376
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 12:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.629

Log loss1.577

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006455777921239509,
  "shareRatio": 0.0310789766407119,
  "totalAfter": 1549,
  "shareBefore": 0.030802292263610316,
  "totalBefore": 1396,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "stockguy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.08% → 0.06% (-98%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "stockguy" (1H). momentum contributed +1.47 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "stockguy". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash675dacb19d21179fed71c793e393343e404f80fa79815b6872732f81c89eb3e0

Previous hash283508111360dcf0b06bbf6251bada8cdbc9601d274278f83abee791f48a1cf8