Will "stockguy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "stockguy" (27 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 4.35×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 1.4694571961296707,
      "diversity": -0.14651162790697672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7009858760752969
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stockguy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.1359375,
    "share60": 0.0312724658519051,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 4.346875,
    "diversity": 0.627906976744186,
    "launches15": 43,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989231018518518
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7009858760752969
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009572709076668697,
  "shareRatio": 0.16503434673195946,
  "totalAfter": 11491,
  "shareBefore": 0.005994702356057437,
  "totalBefore": 7173,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity