GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3838 · narrative · 6H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (27 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.

Made2026-10-14 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -0.5077054964297469,
      "diversity": 0.11249999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4057090930760471
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0140625,
    "share60": 0.02336448598130841,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 0.601875,
    "diversity": 0.84375,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989231018518518
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4057090930760471
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.165
Log loss0.520
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.009224610564789836,
  "shareRatio": 0.9170169353193225,
  "totalAfter": 11491,
  "shareBefore": 0.010037641154328732,
  "totalBefore": 7173,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 106,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.00% → 0.92% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "justice" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbde0c51dd317d26ad4288c4aa5e0843bb4fbd2165e8f791d3107ac62be9a0e6e
Previous hashcaa13628bf217e72a9412e1745ac29147612be086b7e37bc24d9848ba24135b3