Will "cartoon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "cartoon" (8 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.94×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.6638320321430351,
      "diversity": -0.4826086956521739
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49677310665526697
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cartoon",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0328125,
    "share60": 0.01689432063263839,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 1.942220744680851,
    "diversity": 0.34782608695652173,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989231018518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49677310665526697
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0020885910712731704,
  "shareRatio": 0.5366448666043808,
  "totalAfter": 11491,
  "shareBefore": 0.0039035271155722848,
  "totalBefore": 7173,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity