Ledger / Prediction #3840 · narrative · 6H
Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (5 distinct creators, rank #186). Last 15m momentum 2.77×.
Made2026-10-14 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.0174720723866133,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6507256596359527
},
"features": {
"term": "fuck",
"rank60": 186,
"share15": 0.0109375,
"share60": 0.003953989935298346,
"total15": 319,
"total60": 1390,
"momentum": 2.7661931818181817,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 175,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989231018518518
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6507256596359527
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.423
Log loss1.052
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0010442955356365852,
"shareRatio": 0.8213952039862971,
"totalAfter": 11491,
"shareBefore": 0.0012547051442910915,
"totalBefore": 7173,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 9
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.10% (-17%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fuck" (6H). momentum contributed +1.02 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0dbe51bfe179a6c2e959de7e8cff54912a26c9fd65e463d7167dc5b48bc99060Previous hash
3c246c703229352484dcd16f49ef43a87fc5c0e9523fac500c1909886ccaaddf