Will "diff" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1390 launches in the last hour referenced "diff" (23 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -2.9493834116669273,
      "diversity": -0.22682926829268285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15054968641300515
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "diff",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0015625,
    "share60": 0.029834651329978434,
    "total15": 319,
    "total60": 1390,
    "momentum": 0.05237198795180723,
    "diversity": 0.5609756097560976,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999730775462963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15054968641300515
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 11:30 UTC.

Integrity