Ledger / Prediction #385 · narrative · 1H

Will "jesus" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 2625 launches in the last hour referenced "jesus" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.57×.

Made2026-10-09 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": 0.451159058150959,
      "diversity": -0.8578947368421053
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44084790317345246
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jesus",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06846153846153846,
    "share60": 0.0436024371667936,
    "total15": 649,
    "total60": 2625,
    "momentum": 1.5701310043668124,
    "diversity": 0.03508771929824561,
    "launches15": 44,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 408,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44084790317345246
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.194

Log loss0.581

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03643724696356275,
  "shareRatio": 0.8436508435173259,
  "totalAfter": 2223,
  "shareBefore": 0.04326375711574953,
  "totalBefore": 2635,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 81,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "jesus" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.33% → 3.64% (-16%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "jesus" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash307ac103097d7fae36e755fb86bff62ab827c30e86bd186d1765849104e22770

Previous hash853de677d12134cfe1cc13a845bf8c26ca811889be6489d612bce2195e53da81