Ledger / Prediction #3850 · narrative · 1H

Will "neymar" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1365 launches in the last hour referenced "neymar" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.90×.

Made2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": 1.3610928289505775,
      "diversity": -0.06923076923076925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.775417914909757
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "neymar",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.07566765578635015,
    "share60": 0.019399707174231333,
    "total15": 336,
    "total60": 1365,
    "momentum": 3.9004535020435585,
    "diversity": 0.6923076923076923,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993791666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993791666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.775417914909757
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.601

Log loss1.493

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0043997485857950975,
  "shareRatio": 0.24355266900540437,
  "totalAfter": 1591,
  "shareBefore": 0.018991964937910884,
  "totalBefore": 1369,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "neymar" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.90% → 0.44% (-77%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "neymar" (1H). momentum contributed +1.36 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "neymar". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash338a3e3c4b1804f199bbf45cd1d80a7d9d0c345e9fa546b4ac689b22936b877f

Previous hashc4a92332a6c94da4a40963ee12ae328abc487e3684a16e7d2db7926dba845282