Will "ecogpt" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1365 launches in the last hour referenced "ecogpt" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": -1.4336542342778424,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22087630466291558
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ecogpt",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004451038575667656,
    "share60": 0.018667642752562226,
    "total15": 336,
    "total60": 1365,
    "momentum": 0.23843602722988305,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993791666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998965277777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22087630466291558
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00017053206002728513,
  "shareRatio": 0.06043341541578691,
  "totalAfter": 11728,
  "shareBefore": 0.003458292986581823,
  "totalBefore": 7229,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity