Will "wizard" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1365 launches in the last hour referenced "wizard" (5 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -1.263028717247079,
      "diversity": -0.6142857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18794232579346767
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wizard",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.004451038575667656,
    "share60": 0.0157393850658858,
    "total15": 336,
    "total60": 1365,
    "momentum": 0.2827962183424194,
    "diversity": 0.23809523809523808,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993791666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998965277777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18794232579346767
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002216916780354707,
  "shareRatio": 0.502620067288837,
  "totalAfter": 11728,
  "shareBefore": 0.0044266150228247335,
  "totalBefore": 7229,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity