GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3872 · narrative · 6H

Will "math" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "math" (7 distinct creators, rank #101). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.5466611392668763,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22647692880699574
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "math",
    "rank60": 101,
    "share15": 0.0011792452830188679,
    "share60": 0.005537459283387622,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1534,
    "momentum": 0.21295782463928967,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993860648148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22647692880699574
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.051
Log loss0.257
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03289473684210526,
  "totalAfter": 11967,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012033694344163659,
  "totalBefore": 7479,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "math" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "math" (6H). momentum contributed -1.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash99b7884229092d4829ec697d9cbf7fec38f91c38ad778ebfba4dccd7e3b3ce95
Previous hash580fca0bcf1200de3bdf1ee36f34353c37710e361ca739732f873abf44e96844