Ledger / Prediction #3873 · narrative · 24H
Will "jackie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 1534 launches in the last hour referenced "jackie" (27 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.62×.
Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": 1.2865522047893398,
"diversity": -0.1956521739130434
},
"rawProbability": 0.6015410450232216
},
"features": {
"term": "jackie",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.10966981132075472,
"share60": 0.03029315960912052,
"total15": 423,
"total60": 1534,
"momentum": 3.6202830188679247,
"diversity": 0.5869565217391305,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963163888888888,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998465162037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6015410450232216
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 12:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
f1c71f7e3be4b509b0aa9633cc29ae222296558f6b8cce487617df05ec4aa1a7Previous hash
99b7884229092d4829ec697d9cbf7fec38f91c38ad778ebfba4dccd7e3b3ce95