Ledger / Prediction #3878 · token · 6H
Will $FKI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 19m ago. X link. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0.2,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.05496948633657418
},
"features": {
"mint": "FHjmVTrsQsiFb6aVrWfKuNLwoJy9EuDNitgXrndnc2D6",
"name": "Flying Ketamine Inu",
"symbol": "FKI",
"hotTerms": [
"inu"
],
"ageMinutes": 19,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 40,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3007.2998492868933,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 556,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.05496948633657418
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.003
Log loss0.057
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": null,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T12:11:15.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 3008.7311806184644,
"athMarketCapUsd": 3008.7311806184644,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 3007.2998492868933,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 6014.599698573787
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 6% that $FKI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,009, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FKI (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
baf990198c3a11bda569466610316091b4b82876032cd2253e971321ea2bbfc7Previous hash
8b292dc5366b991ee658a036642482b73413af86d60ce24e2e56528147c3b4d8