Ledger / Prediction #3887 · narrative · 6H
Will "jeremiah" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
27 of 1577 launches in the last hour referenced "jeremiah" (8 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.
Made2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2529598430355343,
"momentum": 1.2932249122451371,
"diversity": -0.5444444444444444
},
"rawProbability": 0.5989803147579609
},
"features": {
"term": "jeremiah",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.06351351351351352,
"share60": 0.017427122940430924,
"total15": 369,
"total60": 1577,
"momentum": 3.644520884520885,
"diversity": 0.2962962962962963,
"launches15": 23,
"launches60": 27,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 209,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932597222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988766203703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5989803147579609
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.359
Log loss0.914
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00275884453099643,
"shareRatio": 0.7762404573114512,
"totalAfter": 12324,
"shareBefore": 0.003540983606557377,
"totalBefore": 7625,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 27
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "jeremiah" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.28% (-22%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "jeremiah" (6H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2dd962bae6fa2e31ff0d6c932f410a004cdfa5637ed2cfb7c8490dd0c52b644cPrevious hash
0bf318ebcd651ce63ad2bcf8146859b7378fdab0f9486880f2e8cbd3f6e8db29