GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3899 · narrative · 1H

Will "pookie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

127 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "pookie" (66 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.87×.

Made2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48521237610367357,
      "momentum": 0.6233746612309218,
      "diversity": -0.27637795275590554
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6299981983289847
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pookie",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.14919354838709678,
    "share60": 0.0799874529485571,
    "total15": 371,
    "total60": 1593,
    "momentum": 1.8652118912080962,
    "diversity": 0.5196850393700787,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 127,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 66
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 208,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984925
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6299981983289847
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.397
Log loss0.994
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.000594883997620464,
  "shareRatio": 0.011156186612576065,
  "totalAfter": 1681,
  "shareBefore": 0.07967377666248432,
  "totalBefore": 1594,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "pookie" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.97% → 0.06% (-99%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pookie" (1H). momentum contributed +0.62 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash29b5284f6ee7bfc08db761991dc7d536e380fd62de5464a62bef50a4b71d84b5
Previous hashd550c31b14d8f318eedc0ef1f4916352517f14f5a70ffa5866751471caf7f6e4