Ledger / Prediction #3906 · narrative · 24H
Will "albino" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 37% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
133 of 1593 launches in the last hour referenced "albino" (68 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.53×.
Made2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.49213668236814795,
"momentum": -0.6356330918567553,
"diversity": -0.28646616541353387
},
"rawProbability": 0.37402652340493353
},
"features": {
"term": "albino",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.04435483870967742,
"share60": 0.08375156838143036,
"total15": 371,
"total60": 1593,
"momentum": 0.5296000966533769,
"diversity": 0.5112781954887218,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 133,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 68
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 208,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999371875
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.37402652340493353
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 13:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
40f82aaf33e43f82a72996e21eb159c2bb0c74d80caa7be8a56dd3bf86b2260aPrevious hash
8af9551563d75f339040718789542227f2541ed7071613e14289508c2c5edcca