Ledger / Prediction #3914 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (36 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.
Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 0.3967237502086149,
"diversity": 0.10465116279069772
},
"rawProbability": 0.6281151493692827
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.03771551724137931,
"share60": 0.025364431486880466,
"total15": 463,
"total60": 1714,
"momentum": 1.48694510503369,
"diversity": 0.8372093023255814,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 36
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 219,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954919444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6281151493692827
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.138
Log loss0.465
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03653250773993808,
"shareRatio": 1.423128267882968,
"totalAfter": 1615,
"shareBefore": 0.025596276905177427,
"totalBefore": 1719,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 59,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 44
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 63% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.56% → 3.65% (+43%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a5b074a3747a163de384415b75aea563bb6719132d6814096ad0d139d9045f9bPrevious hash
280a000b278a144d85247385ef06bfd012aa619c1bc8e3f7bbe044095b5c49f2