Ledger / Prediction #3918 · narrative · 6H

Will "look" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "look" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -1.8567837809994205,
      "diversity": -0.2828571428571429
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16890213644201818
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "look",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.003232758620689655,
    "share60": 0.020699708454810496,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 0.15617411364740166,
    "diversity": 0.5142857142857142,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992486574074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16890213644201818
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.029

Log loss0.185

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018826482585503608,
  "shareRatio": 0.374156442225093,
  "totalAfter": 12748,
  "shareBefore": 0.005074885505631885,
  "totalBefore": 8079,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "look" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.19% (-63%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "look" (6H). momentum contributed -1.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0968d669e8c5c8f68b7d2e400cd4e60c24047a727e03fd98b7c13b35952d510

Previous hash7db74193d26fad16ef713b9f9ad8595553c04590b8fc3cf3a89ad4d8c2fb5800