Ledger / Prediction #392 · narrative · 6H

Will "200k" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2625 launches in the last hour referenced "200k" (4 distinct creators, rank #274). Last 15m momentum 4.04×.

Made2026-10-09 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 1.3962446919730587,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6516988405212799
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "200k",
    "rank60": 274,
    "share15": 0.01,
    "share60": 0.0024752475247524753,
    "total15": 649,
    "total60": 2625,
    "momentum": 4.04,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 408,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991074537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6516988405212799
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.425

Log loss1.055

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.09162021695497859,
  "totalAfter": 13068,
  "shareBefore": 0.00038548024413748795,
  "totalBefore": 15565,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "200k" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "200k" (6H). momentum contributed +1.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbd37a9b6235653fdeedb2c6766ef55ca1eaba9a3da33744c05ae73de5cdd56dc

Previous hash0b05ac43c820689549f6cd231226a599ce19dabdd96cbfda697efc67cc9fc9b7