GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3922 · narrative · 24H

Will "look" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1714 launches in the last hour referenced "look" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -1.8567837809994205,
      "diversity": -0.2828571428571429
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22725485509152346
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "look",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.003232758620689655,
    "share60": 0.020699708454810496,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1714,
    "momentum": 0.15617411364740166,
    "diversity": 0.5142857142857142,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 219,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998121643518518
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22725485509152346
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 14:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hashb4db5ffedfbbd987e6dc724b5383c4d945d0a977d2c9fdd1193d6bfd2e9785a9
Previous hash8bf6ff0e0916f5b0cfce22eed304321ee5342cef062398ff1a8d508196294fcb