Ledger / Prediction #3925 · token · 1H

Will $Kraken Bank still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2miLGPByFCNEsi7ALQr8u2ujq9HCnHDDvbusSx2Vpump",
    "name": "Kraken Bank",
    "symbol": "Kraken Bank",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2967.801759062536,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 566,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T13:37:12.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2961.525603328842,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3035.197418112512,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2967.801759062536,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5935.603518125072
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $Kraken Bank would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,962, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Kraken Bank (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6db542df7a04940d53d6b3f71b8f7a2e56dd65005963e16a3bf7fd1a39723074

Previous hash78ba51b6c803ef58ea8e31d3f44c3ba818df1516b5e642b819b8ba72eff31da2