GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3933 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.89×.

Made2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 1.0620946857356133,
      "diversity": -0.5545454545454545
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5808362520686337
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.11538461538461539,
    "share60": 0.039892021595680865,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 2.8924233661075767,
    "diversity": 0.2878787878787879,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 224,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986857407407408
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5808362520686337
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.337
Log loss0.869
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.022893772893772892,
  "shareRatio": 0.7109622450205628,
  "totalAfter": 13104,
  "shareBefore": 0.032196744683378874,
  "totalBefore": 8417,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 300,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 271
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.22% → 2.29% (-29%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +1.06 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash504cd10c2d94e76d50e18b95325ce9592f9d5ad51f938a9d583bc65fdb77edf2
Previous hash6ab84837b2e6268d82a4ba0af27245b733504f31c0f5cab62983271188bdb460