Ledger / Prediction #3934 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
65 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (46 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.74×.
Made2026-10-14 14:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3847424036192305,
"momentum": 0.5519801828354305,
"diversity": -0.05076923076923072
},
"rawProbability": 0.5793650358360339
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.06823821339950373,
"share60": 0.03929214157168566,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1666,
"momentum": 1.7366885761369881,
"diversity": 0.7076923076923077,
"launches15": 27,
"launches60": 65,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 46
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 224,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986857407407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5793650358360339
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 20:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.177
Log loss0.546
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02113858363858364,
"shareRatio": 1.1175686132862257,
"totalAfter": 13104,
"shareBefore": 0.018890340976594987,
"totalBefore": 8417,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 277,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 159
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.89% → 2.11% (+12%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0f4a837b6b0500c68325d16d4a75fa580e908efad7cf0cdca81ea91ee18aec16Previous hash
504cd10c2d94e76d50e18b95325ce9592f9d5ad51f938a9d583bc65fdb77edf2