Will "tail" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "tail" (23 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -1.0815916309351,
      "diversity": 0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33260780127683753
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tail",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.00620347394540943,
    "share60": 0.01829634073185363,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 0.33905544481959077,
    "diversity": 0.7666666666666667,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 224,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921144444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996714351851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33260780127683753
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 14:30 UTC.

Integrity