Ledger / Prediction #3946 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (41 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.

Made2026-10-14 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 0.08982150661483178,
      "diversity": 0.16956521739130428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.572551101614239
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03161592505854801,
    "share60": 0.028899937849596023,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 1.0939789982624462,
    "diversity": 0.8913043478260869,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974277777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974277777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.572551101614239
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.328

Log loss0.850

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015557476231633534,
  "shareRatio": 0.5479365521726003,
  "totalAfter": 2314,
  "shareBefore": 0.02848297213622291,
  "totalBefore": 1615,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.85% → 1.56% (-45%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "dog" (1H). volume contributed +0.33 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha141b7b47c29fac4088027a938f505afc3fd7359008afe14988df63c966507a6

Previous hash82225a202b32bd00ab13e4146e4cc3b74f8753457b57af24cf7f2b797f03d11b