Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -1.107029221636691,
      "diversity": -0.5142857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22200331269728638
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.00585480093676815,
    "share60": 0.017712865133623367,
    "total15": 426,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.33053946341262996,
    "diversity": 0.32142857142857145,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974277777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995712962962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22200331269728638
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010189555705401964,
  "shareRatio": 1.1325735957962164,
  "totalAfter": 13347,
  "shareBefore": 0.00897273668468883,
  "totalBefore": 8693,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 136,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity