Will "replyinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "replyinu" (29 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.86×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 1.0504853085674282,
      "diversity": -0.23076923076923073
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7049510199906126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "replyinu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.08238172920065252,
    "share60": 0.028814489571899013,
    "total15": 612,
    "total60": 1821,
    "momentum": 2.859038297211217,
    "diversity": 0.5576923076923077,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9942627777777778
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7049510199906126
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00040257648953301127,
  "shareRatio": 0.021075021557918943,
  "totalAfter": 2484,
  "shareBefore": 0.028384279475982533,
  "totalBefore": 1832,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity