Ledger / Prediction #3966 · narrative · 6H
Will "callinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
78 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "callinu" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.97×.
Made2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41209063713832367,
"momentum": 1.0893251418836922,
"diversity": -0.6692307692307692
},
"rawProbability": 0.5701662568390748
},
"features": {
"term": "callinu",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.12805872756933115,
"share60": 0.043084522502744235,
"total15": 612,
"total60": 1821,
"momentum": 2.972267536704731,
"diversity": 0.19230769230769232,
"launches15": 78,
"launches60": 78,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 203,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990437962962962
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5701662568390748
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 21:39 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.325
Log loss0.844
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0009004277031590005,
"shareRatio": 0.11058563552809658,
"totalAfter": 13327,
"shareBefore": 0.008427876823338737,
"totalBefore": 9255,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 78
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "callinu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.84% → 0.09% (-89%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "callinu" (6H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5ba68074eb5b29ec4b111659b8f400c868858df099ae1f99e14459d3ecc38951Previous hash
31d20b2fae50387bfbaedd384628252ebebfdb7235c462009d69e03046846dec