GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3966 · narrative · 6H

Will "callinu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

78 of 1821 launches in the last hour referenced "callinu" (15 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.97×.

Made2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41209063713832367,
      "momentum": 1.0893251418836922,
      "diversity": -0.6692307692307692
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5701662568390748
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "callinu",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.12805872756933115,
    "share60": 0.043084522502744235,
    "total15": 612,
    "total60": 1821,
    "momentum": 2.972267536704731,
    "diversity": 0.19230769230769232,
    "launches15": 78,
    "launches60": 78,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9942627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990437962962962
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5701662568390748
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:39 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.325
Log loss0.844
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009004277031590005,
  "shareRatio": 0.11058563552809658,
  "totalAfter": 13327,
  "shareBefore": 0.008427876823338737,
  "totalBefore": 9255,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "callinu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.84% → 0.09% (-89%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "callinu" (6H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5ba68074eb5b29ec4b111659b8f400c868858df099ae1f99e14459d3ecc38951
Previous hash31d20b2fae50387bfbaedd384628252ebebfdb7235c462009d69e03046846dec