GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3978 · narrative · 1H

Will "night" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2313 launches in the last hour referenced "night" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.

Made2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 1.1910852760077792,
      "diversity": -0.8608695652173912
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6146896304956504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "night",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.13154069767441862,
    "share60": 0.03997407087294728,
    "total15": 687,
    "total60": 2313,
    "momentum": 3.2906505342551857,
    "diversity": 0.03260869565217391,
    "launches15": 90,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.999925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999925
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6146896304956504
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.378
Log loss0.954
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03753690425980599,
  "shareRatio": 0.9443165762727314,
  "totalAfter": 2371,
  "shareBefore": 0.03975799481417459,
  "totalBefore": 2314,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 89,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "night" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.98% → 3.75% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "night" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0d5603206edd636eabb7c01b318e8db091fe00dc3bfac065c72dcecd7d526520
Previous hash6f4831b3bb8444d9522f96615122369778665ad25bfe4a3c3df47a8eb36e627f