GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #399 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 2448 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (43 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 2.24×.

Made2026-10-09 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": 0.8067369341306536,
      "diversity": 0.021428571428571484
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7090041909284487
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.05169172932330827,
    "share60": 0.023070641077991016,
    "total15": 531,
    "total60": 2448,
    "momentum": 2.240584869252778,
    "diversity": 0.7678571428571429,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999397222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999397222222223
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7090041909284487
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.503
Log loss1.234
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0158311345646438,
  "shareRatio": 0.6954274044539532,
  "totalAfter": 2274,
  "shareBefore": 0.02287581699346405,
  "totalBefore": 2448,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 71% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.29% → 1.58% (-31%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.81 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5dfec61be92c08012b185db84e45a2ba13e958094ed04ec45d1cab534c922540
Previous hash6b2157003553996813537c4bf01532db21b2fcfb8331e6de5acdd74d13f6de52