Ledger / Prediction #3992 · token · 6H

Will $DIKLESS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "promises". Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03752722974296934
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9KazGwkUhQYv73b9tb7SBiccKP8n38q4Dipkogbegb2m",
    "name": "DIKLESS",
    "symbol": "DIKLESS",
    "hotTerms": [
      "promises"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 112,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2927.415987091989,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 844,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03752722974296934
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.038

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T15:47:11.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2916.682199635265,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 2939.255269009711,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2927.415987091989,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5854.831974183978
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $DIKLESS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,917, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $DIKLESS (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashad5bab4a1714d7c4f05488f6f0e81149b89431b17acac78cfcecb5e5fe9260aa

Previous hasheb58cae5ce5921a2be260161ad2c170a103d9c803fbdd0c12469106ad695fc41