GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3995 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

93 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (59 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

Made2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43847423710787337,
      "momentum": 0.190984526406441,
      "diversity": -0.13870967741935483
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5475432030661962
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.04561717352415027,
    "share60": 0.037686416767432486,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2480,
    "momentum": 1.210440722068629,
    "diversity": 0.6344086021505376,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 93,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 59
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974158333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5475432030661962
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.205
Log loss0.602
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03913228413441089,
  "shareRatio": 1.0452476445123504,
  "totalAfter": 2351,
  "shareBefore": 0.03743961352657005,
  "totalBefore": 2484,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 93
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.74% → 3.91% (+5%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0f599fb09e631ea982629204bb303f65962bab1589de107923110312d28bd890
Previous hash96ae195fa117b2ff07db49586268cc8b437d54c62cd17b6b867e49eb8f8f96bb