Ledger / Prediction #3995 · narrative · 1H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
93 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (59 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.
Made2026-10-14 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43847423710787337,
"momentum": 0.190984526406441,
"diversity": -0.13870967741935483
},
"rawProbability": 0.5475432030661962
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.04561717352415027,
"share60": 0.037686416767432486,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2480,
"momentum": 1.210440722068629,
"diversity": 0.6344086021505376,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 93,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 59
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974158333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5475432030661962
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.205
Log loss0.602
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03913228413441089,
"shareRatio": 1.0452476445123504,
"totalAfter": 2351,
"shareBefore": 0.03743961352657005,
"totalBefore": 2484,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 92,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 93
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.74% → 3.91% (+5%). PARTIAL.
— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0f599fb09e631ea982629204bb303f65962bab1589de107923110312d28bd890Previous hash
96ae195fa117b2ff07db49586268cc8b437d54c62cd17b6b867e49eb8f8f96bb