Will "mba" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2480 launches in the last hour referenced "mba" (58 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": -2.0419581335318577,
      "diversity": -0.08117647058823527
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18411590573669392
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mba",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.004472271914132379,
    "share60": 0.034461910519951636,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2480,
    "momentum": 0.12977434642061322,
    "diversity": 0.6823529411764706,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995693055555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18411590573669392
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004708840214040629,
  "totalAfter": 13085,
  "shareBefore": 0.008067577828397874,
  "totalBefore": 10536,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity