Ledger / Prediction #400 · narrative · 1H

Will "meet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2448 launches in the last hour referenced "meet" (10 distinct creators, rank #96). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.6087026483186264,
      "diversity": 0.19090909090909086
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16804801965893584
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "meet",
    "rank60": 96,
    "share15": 0.0009398496240601503,
    "share60": 0.0046957942017149855,
    "total15": 531,
    "total60": 2448,
    "momentum": 0.20014710689767898,
    "diversity": 0.9090909090909091,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999397222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999397222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16804801965893584
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.028

Log loss0.184

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00395778364116095,
  "shareRatio": 0.8892689918776877,
  "totalAfter": 2274,
  "shareBefore": 0.004493464052287581,
  "totalBefore": 2448,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "meet" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.40% (-12%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "meet" (1H). momentum contributed -1.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash569ab6fce3fc4e5ab7bb60820f25c76f6b8eda345472b3b67dd6572c81ff6ac7

Previous hash5dfec61be92c08012b185db84e45a2ba13e958094ed04ec45d1cab534c922540