Ledger / Prediction #4005 · token · 1H

Will $ARGON still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5Btjj8z3srhT2t13uq3DFkHaQZpud18jKjRySyxPpump",
    "name": "Argoncoin",
    "symbol": "ARGON",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3518.0088198391845,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 807,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T16:14:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3044.9687993419952,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4670.317094296584,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3518.0088198391845,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7036.017639678369
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $ARGON would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,045, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $ARGON (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e48c83701754ad498c14240415ec3efe7d188de92cdb02ecbea3ac62f825386

Previous hash611fa1efbe9857de8161db3d17505b3bafb9ae81e3c4ed775618c598efc90198