GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4010 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

65 of 2359 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (44 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3847424036192305,
      "momentum": 0.029940777864004366,
      "diversity": -0.08769230769230764
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.506747308830745
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.02859778597785978,
    "share60": 0.027754237288135593,
    "total15": 541,
    "total60": 2359,
    "momentum": 1.0303935100419708,
    "diversity": 0.676923076923077,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 65,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943822222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.506747308830745
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.257
Log loss0.707
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.019820670127418595,
  "shareRatio": 0.7256769408036872,
  "totalAfter": 2119,
  "shareBefore": 0.027426160337552744,
  "totalBefore": 2370,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 42,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.74% → 1.98% (-28%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash30cb28cf2f9ed753deb95726c606839c63624d4ff540c4a74541518f73766969
Previous hashcba26f25f1e1b41cb5f6da81218e72d84360528e41868f76dabe2231e2be5273