Ledger / Prediction #4010 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
65 of 2359 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (44 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.
Made2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3847424036192305,
"momentum": 0.029940777864004366,
"diversity": -0.08769230769230764
},
"rawProbability": 0.506747308830745
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.02859778597785978,
"share60": 0.027754237288135593,
"total15": 541,
"total60": 2359,
"momentum": 1.0303935100419708,
"diversity": 0.676923076923077,
"launches15": 15,
"launches60": 65,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 44
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943822222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943822222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.506747308830745
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.257
Log loss0.707
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.019820670127418595,
"shareRatio": 0.7256769408036872,
"totalAfter": 2119,
"shareBefore": 0.027426160337552744,
"totalBefore": 2370,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 42,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 65
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.74% → 1.98% (-28%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
30cb28cf2f9ed753deb95726c606839c63624d4ff540c4a74541518f73766969Previous hash
cba26f25f1e1b41cb5f6da81218e72d84360528e41868f76dabe2231e2be5273