GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4011 · narrative · 1H

Will "sonny" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2359 launches in the last hour referenced "sonny" (27 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.

Made2026-10-14 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.2783513928521986,
      "diversity": -0.1636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5351737516814131
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sonny",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.024907749077490774,
    "share60": 0.01885593220338983,
    "total15": 541,
    "total60": 2359,
    "momentum": 1.3209502881545667,
    "diversity": 0.6136363636363636,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943822222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5351737516814131
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.286
Log loss0.766
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004247286455875413,
  "shareRatio": 0.23875874496502011,
  "totalAfter": 2119,
  "shareBefore": 0.018565400843881856,
  "totalBefore": 2370,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "sonny" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.86% → 0.42% (-77%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "sonny" (1H). volume contributed +0.33 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashab4d818ee39fb61eba17b93150dd31daff110ddece26d6ee308d8c072edc5176
Previous hash30cb28cf2f9ed753deb95726c606839c63624d4ff540c4a74541518f73766969