Will "sonny" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2359 launches in the last hour referenced "sonny" (27 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.2783513928521986,
      "diversity": -0.1636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4801264489861147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sonny",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.024907749077490774,
    "share60": 0.01885593220338983,
    "total15": 541,
    "total60": 2359,
    "momentum": 1.3209502881545667,
    "diversity": 0.6136363636363636,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943822222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999765925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4801264489861147
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC.

Integrity