GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4026 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 2351 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (58 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.30×.

Made2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 17:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 0.2658645081018616,
      "diversity": -0.1434782608695652
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5644491743209129
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.051305970149253734,
    "share60": 0.03932823129251701,
    "total15": 535,
    "total60": 2351,
    "momentum": 1.3045582896329164,
    "diversity": 0.6304347826086957,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 58
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 349,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999291666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5644491743209129
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.190
Log loss0.572
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.045925925925925926,
  "shareRatio": 1.173458552333182,
  "totalAfter": 2025,
  "shareBefore": 0.03913228413441089,
  "totalBefore": 2351,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 93,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.91% → 4.59% (+17%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8052128f202a3fdbe09212241f0e6cdcf8deee2faf1c1e757c3de4e8f71a8a72
Previous hash6a9c74a060d35667a383a2dd1f2ae1889e1dafa26552bd37e48311e81a065623