Ledger / Prediction #403 · narrative · 6H

Will "paws" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 2448 launches in the last hour referenced "paws" (26 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -2.984067938906327,
      "diversity": -0.20666666666666672
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09089086525715107
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paws",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0009398496240601503,
    "share60": 0.01857901184156799,
    "total15": 531,
    "total60": 2448,
    "momentum": 0.050586631413699075,
    "diversity": 0.5777777777777777,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999397222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999899537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09089086525715107
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.095

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003956635277360133,
  "shareRatio": 0.04727175935271773,
  "totalAfter": 12637,
  "shareBefore": 0.009174311926605505,
  "totalBefore": 15369,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 141
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "paws" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.04% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paws" (6H). momentum contributed -2.98 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9939558e23d85932c64108a6d938bbf223d8e0a1f2baf8238fc09a8b5942d81e

Previous hash2d5ca4adad393c6a5f98864157752da990b23ff358b64e3a712dcbc2f2501d34