Will "self" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2110 launches in the last hour referenced "self" (4 distinct creators, rank #339). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.8632756439010003,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33144920170216385
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "self",
    "rank60": 339,
    "share15": 0.001098901098901099,
    "share60": 0.0026054002842254855,
    "total15": 454,
    "total60": 2110,
    "momentum": 0.4217782217782218,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 309,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968844444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998701851851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33144920170216385
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 18:00 UTC.

Integrity