Ledger / Prediction #4058 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2013 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (19 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

Made2026-10-14 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -1.304142022498768,
      "diversity": -0.6285714285714286
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14069776597065792
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.011387163561076604,
    "share60": 0.04195630585898709,
    "total15": 482,
    "total60": 2013,
    "momentum": 0.27140529481666603,
    "diversity": 0.2261904761904762,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937741666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937741666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14069776597065792
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.020

Log loss0.152

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00903041825095057,
  "shareRatio": 0.22210853279736886,
  "totalAfter": 2104,
  "shareBefore": 0.04148148148148148,
  "totalBefore": 2025,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.15% → 0.90% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -1.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1d1c9d5a5610612792dbb22d77d82ec9ae9d438f549786f5725291ad5a4fb246

Previous hashcb50ec15189314b236748469988ba3c71c69e1842f493aa3f0c795c93fe8562e