Will "keep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2013 launches in the last hour referenced "keep" (9 distinct creators, rank #119). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -0.4179652708723958,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41828995103084843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keep",
    "rank60": 119,
    "share15": 0.003105590062111801,
    "share60": 0.0047169811320754715,
    "total15": 482,
    "total60": 2013,
    "momentum": 0.6583850931677019,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937741666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9937741666666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41828995103084843
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004752851711026616,
  "shareRatio": 0.1519689961245156,
  "totalAfter": 2104,
  "shareBefore": 0.0044444444444444444,
  "totalBefore": 2025,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity