Will "pair" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 2013 launches in the last hour referenced "pair" (71 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 0.4881190267167299,
      "diversity": 0.236
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6203958139693575
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pair",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.061076604554865424,
    "share60": 0.0374875868917577,
    "total15": 482,
    "total60": 2013,
    "momentum": 1.6292487625629,
    "diversity": 0.9466666666666667,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 71
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937741666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989623611111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6203958139693575
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026072529035316427,
  "shareRatio": 0.35389812435618256,
  "totalAfter": 12657,
  "shareBefore": 0.007437118743210495,
  "totalBefore": 11967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity